Democrats and Republicans will spar for control of more than a dozen narrowly divided state legislatures this year as they vie to break a near deadlock of party power in the nation's statehouses.
Both parties plan to invest time and money in Colorado, Iowa and Montana -- three of the 10 states where Democrats gained state legislative majorities in the 2004 election despite losing the presidential vote.
Republicans hope to continue a long march through the South, replicating their 2004 takeover of the Georgia House of Representatives -- a victory that gave them control of both chambers of that Legislature and sparked a flurry of Democrats to switch parties in the Peach State. Meanwhile, Democrats will try to continue increasing their ranks in Minnesota and Oregon and are gunning for control of the New York Senate for the first time in 40 years.
While many of contested states are the same as two years ago, election-year issues will be different from 2004. Most state budgets are projected to be in the black, and political debates could include spending increases or tax cuts for the first time in several years, alongside traditional topics of education, the economy and health care. But a host of hot-button issues could lure partisans to the polls, including a number of heavily contested governor's races and likely ballot initiatives outlawing gay marriage, cutting social services for illegal immigrants and capping state spending.
In all, 46 states will hold elections for their legislatures this year, with 84 percent of the nation's 7,382 lawmakers' seats on the line. The GOP has majorities in both legislative chambers in 20 states compared to Democrats’ control of 19 statehouses. Ten statehouses are divided between the parties; in the Iowa Senate and the Montana House, Democrats and Republicans are tied. (Nebraska has the nation's only nonpartisan and unicameral legislature.)
Thirty-six governor's seats also are up for election this year, along with 33 U.S. senators and the entire U.S. House of Representatives. (New Jersey and Virginia held state gubernatorial and legislative elections in 2005, and Louisiana and Mississippi will elect state lawmakers in 2007).
Term limits will oust 22 of Nebraska's senators for the first time this year along with legislators in 13 other states that limit lawmakers’ years in office.
Although Democrats lost the presidential election and had a net loss of seats in Congress in 2004, they netted more than 60 state legislative seats nationwide and brought the parties to near parity in total number of legislative seats. In nine states, both legislative chambers are within four seats of a tie or a new majority: Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, North Carolina, Oregon and Tennessee.
Single chambers in 16 other states are within four seats of a tie or a new majority: Alaska, Arizona, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin.
At least three of this year's battlegrounds will be in Montana, Colorado and Iowa, "red" states that gave President Bush a majority of votes, while Democrats gained at the state level. Because they have one chamber where the two parties are tied, Iowa and Montana will be the hottest statehouse races, said Tim Storey, an elections expert for the
National Conference of State Legislatures.
- In Montana, where the president got 59 percent of the presidential vote, Democrats hope to improve on the 27-to-23 Senate majority they won in 2004, alongside the victory of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Brian Schweitzer. Democrats and Republicans will vie for control of the House of Representatives, which is tied 50-50.
- In Colorado, where the president received nearly 52 percent of the vote, Democrats captured a majority in both chambers of that state's Legislature for the first time in 40 years. A 2005 referendum to roll back the state's tax and spending limits split the state's Republican Party and remains an important part of the political landscape in the Rocky Mountain State. Colorado also has an open gubernatorial election that could influence control of the state Legislature.
- In Iowa, Bush's margin of victory was just 10,000 votes, as Democrats made gains in both legislative chambers in 2004 and brought the state Senate to a 25-25 tie. The GOP maintains a 51-49 majority in the House. The state's political climate also will be charged by an open gubernatorial race.
Democrats also are gunning for control of the New York Senate -- a chamber where they have been in the minority since 1967. The GOP currently holds a majority of 35 to 27 in that chamber. But state and local government elections have been moving in the Democratic direction for several elections, said Kenneth Sherrill, a political scientist at Hunter College in New York.
It's not impossible that Democrats could take a majority in the New York Senate, said Alex Johnson, director of the
Republican Legislative Campaign Committee. But he predicted that incumbency will favor the GOP.
This year, Republicans are aiming for more seats in Kentucky, Oklahoma and Tennessee, where each party controls one chamber of the legislature, Johnson said.
The GOP has a 21-15 majority in the Kentucky Senate and hopes to improve the 43-57 minority they hold in the House.
Republicans won a 57-44 majority of the Oklahoma House in 2004 and are targeting the state Senate where they need just three seats to take control of that chamber.
The GOP captured a 17-16 majority in the Tennessee Senate in 2004 and would take control of the House with a change of just four seats. Johnson said his party's efforts may be helped by the fallout from an FBI sting that resulted in the indictment of five state lawmakers last year (four Democratic state senators and one Republican representative).
But political science professor David Folz at the University of Tennessee said it is too early to tell whether voters are outraged enough to throw out more Democrats. And the GOP's chances may be dimmed if the party does not find a strong gubernatorial candidate to challenge first-term Gov. Phil Bredesen (D), he said.
Republicans also have their sights set on Alabama and West Virginia, where they are in the minority in both chambers.
Johnson, whose organization spent more than $7.3 million promoting Republicans in state races in 2004, said that the budget issues will help Republicans this year. "Now we can talk about cutting taxes or reforming the tax code," he said.
GOP rhetoric about budget cuts to popular programs backfired and worked in the Democrats’ favor in 2004, said Michael Davies, director of the
Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which spent more than $3.1 million to support Democratic state legislators across the country that year. In addition to pressing local issues, Democrats will focus on the impact felt by states because of federal mandates, especially President Bush's No Child Left Behind Act, the education bill that lawmakers from both parties have blasted for imposing new costs on the states, Davies said.
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