Who's in trouble in 14 gov races in '07, '08?

(Updated with correction 11:48 EDT, Aug. 30)

Like the opening scenes of a James Bond movie, the upcoming cycle of governors’ races promises high drama in its opening moments. So don’t blink or you may miss the biggest action in the 2007 and 2008 gubernatorial contests.

 

This fall’s elections in Louisiana and Kentucky are the ones most vulnerable to triggering a switch in political hands, according to the first assessment by “Out There" of the 14 gubernatorial races through Election Day 2008.

 

If both flipped control, the balance of power among the nation’s governors would stay the same: 28 Democrats and 22 Republicans. But more upheaval is possible in a handful of states in 2008, when 11 states elect new governors.

 

“Out There” will periodically rate the governors’ races as “Safe” for the party in power, “Vulnerable” or “Worth Watching.”

 

Louisiana Gov. Kathleen Blanco (D) was so weakened by her performance following Hurricane Katrina that she bowed out of the 2007 race rather than seek another term. The clear favorite is U.S. Rep. Bobby Jindal (R), defeated by Blanco in 2003.

Jindal, 36, is an Indian-American, and many have speculated that his loss to Blanco by a 52-48 percent margin stemmed from a reluctance by evangelical conservatives in the rural north to vote for someone who’s not white. This time, Jindal has won the endorsement of a sheriffs’ group influential in that region. He’s also aggressively counterattacked a Democratic Party ad that accuses Jindal, a convert to Catholicism, of once writing disparagingly of Protestantism in a journal article.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Party’s base of African Americans is smaller after Katrina, though the impact of that shrinkage is unclear. Democrats are looking to state Sen. Walter Boasso, who was a Republican until recently. (Party switches in the state are common.) Polls show Boasso gaining after airing a series of largely self-financed TV ads. The other major candidates running are Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell (D) and businessman John Georges (R).

Louis Jacobson is the editor of CongressNow, an online publication launched in 2007 that covers legislation and policy in Congress and is affiliated with Roll Call newspaper in Washington, D.C. Jacobson originated the “Out There” column in 2004 as a feature for Roll Call, where he served as deputy editor. Earlier, Jacobson spent 11 years with National Journal covering lobbying, politics and policy, and served as a contributing writer for two of its affiliates, CongressDaily and Government Executive. He also was a contributing writer to The Almanac of American Politics and has done political handicapping of state legislatures for both The Rothenberg Political Report and The Cook Political Report.

Jindal’s best shot is to win 50 percent in Louisiana’s all-party first round on Oct. 20 and thus avoid a Nov. 17 runoff. For now, the polls say he’s doing that.

 

Kentucky Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R) spent his first term mired in an investigation that led him and several key officials to be indicted for illegally rewarding political allies with jobs. He pardoned the officials, and misdemeanor charges against him were dropped in an agreement with Attorney General Greg Stumbo (D). Fletcher fought off two challengers in the June primary, in which his own lieutenant governor refused to run on Fletcher's ticket and supported a GOP opponent. Fletcher now faces a tough fight against former Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear (D).

 

Fletcher has touted reforms of the tax structure and Medicaid as well as budget surpluses and higher teacher salaries. But to counterbalance the loss of reform-minded voters from both parties who had championed Fletcher in 2003, the governor needs to win over rural conservatives, many of them Democrats. He’s attacked Beshear’s desire to hold a referendum on casinos and his support for letting universities opt to permit benefits for same-sex partners.

 

Beshear leads in most polls by double digits, buoyed by Democratic unity, strong performances on the stump and the fact that he’s not Fletcher. But most expect the race to tighten before Nov. 6.

 

 

 

 

Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) may be governor from a red state, but he has faced enough static during his first term – including changing the state’s time zones, closing motor vehicle offices and leasing a toll road to a foreign company – to give Democrats hope of knocking him off. However, Democrats have to get through a contentious primary first — between architect and neophyte candidate (though experienced fund-raiser and party activist) Jim Schellinger, former U.S. Rep. Jill Long Thompson and state Senate Minority Leader Richard Young. Daniels starts as the frontrunner, given his stature and the fact that Republicans will come out to support their presidential candidate in 2008.

 

 

 

North Carolina Gov. Mike Easley (D) will have to leave office at the end of his second term in 2008, and despite the state’s Republican lean in federal races, Democrats are favored to keep the seat for the fifth consecutive election.

 

Sources in the state agree that either of two Democrats, Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue and state treasurer Richard Moore, would begin as a frontrunner against anyone in the Republican field, including former state Supreme Court Justice Bob Orr, state Sen. Fred Smith and Bill Graham, a lawyer who has aired ads on hot-button issues such as immigration and gas taxes. Plus, the Democratic Party has been more unified and organized than the state GOP in recent years.

 

 

Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer ended a decade-plus of Republican control when he won the governorship in 2004. Though recent polls are sparse, Republicans and Democrats in the state agree that the charismatic, populist Democrat is popular as he seeks a second term in 2008. Republicans have not yet settled on a candidate. Until the Republican field becomes clearer, Schweitzer will have the spotlight to himself, and he’s skilled at seizing it.

 

 

In Mississippi, Gov. Haley Barbour (R) is poised to win a second term this Nov. 6, buoyed by the perception that he successfully put his state on the road to recovery after Hurricane Katrina. Democrats are talking up their chances with a novice but intriguing candidate: wealthy trial lawyer John Eaves, who is touting his deep religious faith, including support for student-led school prayer, and attacking Barbour over published allegations of cronyism in the Katrina rebuilding effort. Eaves remains an underdog, but his unusual profile makes the race interesting.

 

Vermont’s liberal lean notwithstanding, Republican Gov. Jim Douglas seems set to win his fourth two-year term in 2008. No major potential challenger has surfaced.

 

 

New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch (D) won in 2006 with 74 percent of the vote amid a Democratic sweep. He faces a Republican Party still grappling with fallout from getting caught in a phone-jamming scheme in 2002. Lynch should cruise to a third two-year term.

 

Two popular Republican governors in conservative states – North Dakota’s John Hoeven and Utah’s Jon Huntsman Jr. — should have nothing to worry about in 2008. Hoeven is seeking a third term, Huntsman a second.

Editor's Note: An original version misstated the Kentucky governor's primary contenders; Fletcher's lieutenant governor did not run against him but declined to run on Fletcher's ticket and supported another Republican in the June primary.

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