The 2007 elections prove once again that all politics is local as voters in three states soundly rejected governors’ pet projects and others put big-ticket spending items such as roads and cancer research on the state’s credit card.
The results yielded clues to the mood of voters as the country gears up for the kickoff of the 2008 presidential race, possibly as early as next month if New Hampshire decides to hold its primary then. “Voters are in a very change-oriented mood,” said Terry Madonna, a professor and director of the Keystone Poll at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, Pa.
Still, Tim Storey, a state elections expert at the National Conference of State Legislatures, cautioned against reading too much about 2008 into the Nov. 6 legislative and state contests because the issues and concerns are very state specific. From scandals in New Jersey to term limits in Louisiana, “there are a lot of unusual circumstances,” Storey said.
| Election 2007 — by the numbers | |
| Sources: National Conference of State Legislatures database, Stateline.org reporting |
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Kentucky Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R), who lost his job to
Democrat Steve Beshear, wasn’t the only top state executive to take it on the chin in this year’s election. Voters in New Jersey, Oregon and Utah all repudiated their governor’s endorsement of high-profile ballot initiatives by voting “no.”
New Jersey turned thumbs-down to a plan to borrow $450 million to fund stem-cell research, rejecting a statewide ballot measure for the first time in 17 years. The result came despite heavy campaigning in favor of the funding by Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine, who poured $150,000 of his own money into the vote.
Corzine had argued that the investment in stem-cell research would be returned in the form of future jobs and tax revenue. Opponents, however, viewed the measure as a spending spree at a time when the state — facing $30 billion in debt — can ill afford it.
In Oregon, voters handily defeated a proposal pushed by Gov. Ted Kulongoski (D) to raise the state’s cigarette tax by 84.5 cents per pack to fund children’s health care. Two tobacco companies, Reynolds American and Philip Morris, spent nearly $12 million to squelch the initiative. Kulongoski said Big Tobacco “basically bought an election,” The (Portland) Oregonian reported. Oregon’s decision is at odds with decisions by at least five states this year to increase cigarette taxes to raise money for health care. Congress is battling with the White House over a proposal to expand children’s health care through a cigarette-tax increase.
In Utah, voters rebuffed Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. (R) and the Republican Legislature when they rescinded what would have been the most expansive statewide school-voucher program in the nation. The plan would have provided vouchers of up to $3,000 for any student choosing to attend a private school.
Unlike Corzine and Kulongoski, Huntsman did not actively campaign in favor of vouchers, despite backing them himself. After the Utah vote, House Speaker Greg Curtis (R) said the Legislature will not consider any voucher proposals in the next session.
Currently 13 states, including Utah, have voucher or tax-credit programs for specific students, such as poor pupils or those with disabilities. The defeat was yet another blow to vouchers at the ballot box. In 2000, the last time voters weighed in, California and Michigan rejected vouchers, which critics say drain funds from public schools and violate the separation of church and state because some money would go to religious schools.
No new taxes, but more spending please
Voters showed an aversion to higher taxes -- but a willingness to borrow. Besides squashing the cigarette-tax hike in Oregon, voters in Washington made it harder for politicians to raise taxes by requiring two-thirds approval from the Legislature or direct voter approval of any increase. The measure was the brainchild of activist Tim Eyman, a conservative political activist who has introduced at least a dozen ballot measures in the state since 1998 -- most of them unsuccessful attempts to curb taxes and fees.
Texans want to spend -- and spend big. Lone Star voters agreed to invest more than $3 billion in cancer prevention and issue $6 billion in bonds for highway and construction projects. The cancer initiative was a priority for Gov. Rick Perry (R) and widely promoted by cycling legend and cancer survivor Lance Armstrong.
The 2007 election yielded other interesting takeaways. Contests in Virginia and New York showed that Republican efforts to appeal to voters by getting tough on illegal immigration weren’t enough to change the course of Virginia legislative elections or New York county contests.
In Virginia, Democrats took control of the state Senate by appealing to voters in the Washington, D.C., suburbs. Several GOP candidates tried to tap into voter anger over immigration in the area, but issues such as traffic congestion and controlling economic development carried the day for Democrats instead.
In New York, local Democrats distanced themselves – limiting their damage in county elections -- from a plan by New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer (D) to give driver’s licenses to illegal immigrants. The issue set off a political firestorm, but voter turnout was low and Democrats avoided losses.
In Pennsylvania, voters’ anger over a controversial pay raise for judges and lawmakers in 2005 appears to be subsiding. Voters there opted to keep, rather than oust, all but one of the 68 judges who faced "yes/no" retention votes.
Results in the five states that held legislative or statewide contests Nov. 6 suggest Democrats continue to build on the “blue” tide that hit statehouses and the Congress in 2006.
Democrats held their 28-to-22 advantage in the nation’s governor’s suites. Pending the outcome of Louisiana’s legislative election Nov. 17, the Democratic Party controls both houses in 23 legislatures while Republicans now control both houses in 14 states.
Democrats flipped control of legislative chambers in Virginia and Mississippi on Election Day and made gains in four of the six chambers with seats on the ballot, including adding one seat to their majority in the New Jersey Senate although they lost two seats in the Assembly.
‘Blue’ tide continues
In Mississippi, where Republican Gov. Haley Barbour coasted to re-election, Democrats netted four new spots in the state Senate to retake control with a 28-24 majority. Democrats also defeated one of two state senators who switched to the GOP earlier this year, giving Republicans a short-lived majority in that chamber for the first time since 1875. State Democrats said the GOP’s resistance to lowering the state’s 7 percent grocery tax, the nation’s highest, was a major issue in this year’s election. Democrats lost one seat in the Mississippi House, but still hold 74 of that chamber’s 122 seats, based on unofficial vote counts.
Still, how much power Democrats will wield in both Mississippi chambers is in question, noted Marty Wiseman, director of the Stennis Institute of Government at Mississippi State University. Democrats' control in the state Senate is limited by the fact that the lieutenant governor who oversees the chamber is a Republican; in the House, a Democrat friendly to Barbour is making a run for speaker.
The 2007 elections provided some hint that Virginia may be leaning less “red” and become more of a swing state in the presidential election. The Democrats’ takeover of the Virginia Senate, for the first time in 12 years, follows last year’s victory by Democrat Jim Webb over incumbent U.S. Sen. George Allen and back-to-back Democratic governors.
Democratic gains came largely from the fast-growing Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C., and the Hampton Roads areas where traffic congestion has been a central concern. Those areas helped Gov. Tim Kaine (D) to victory in 2005. Democrats also won four additional seats in the Virginia House, but will still have a 44-seat minority in that chamber to the GOP’s 54, according to unofficial results.
Madonna, of the Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, Pa., said “I wouldn’t draw huge conclusions from [2007]. I do think there were some hints, some signs, in these elections that auger well for Democrats for next year.” He said Democrats seem more motivated and are eagerly anticipating next year’s elections, a stance that could modestly increase turnout among Democrats.
John Gramlich, Eric Kelderman and Daniel C. Vock contributed to this story.
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