When Democrat Steve Beshear ousted GOP Gov. Ernie Fletcher in Kentucky this month, his victory was widely attributed to Fletcher’s ethics troubles. But Beshear’s win also fit a broader pattern in recent years – of Democrats winning the governorship of “red” states and of Republicans winning the governorship of “blue” states.
Forget the extreme partisanship – and record-low approval ratings – in Washington, D.C. Some of the most popular politicians in the country are governors whose constituents are distinctly hostile to their party at the federal – and particularly the presidential – level.
Why is this so? It could be voters rebelling against the polarization of national politics, or feeling comfort in divided government. It also owes something to the peculiar dynamics of 2002, when widespread angst over state budget crises produced widespread anti-incumbency sentiment. In the 36 gubernatorial races that year, voters in a stunning 20 states elected the candidate from the out-of-power party. Some of these states simply reverted to the party that had won the presidential race in their state. But in many cases, Democrats won in the unlikeliest of places, such as Oklahoma, Wyoming and Kansas, while Republicans seized governor’s suites in such unfriendly territory as Hawaii, Maryland and Vermont.
The succeeding four years have proven that their victories weren’t a fluke. In 2006, voters re-elected six of the incumbent Republicans in blue states, as well as six of the incumbent Democrats governing solidly red states. All but a few won by comfortable margins (see chart). Only Maryland’s Republican governor, Robert Ehrlich, lost his seat, to Democrat Martin O’Malley.
Today, virtually all of these governors remain popular. With the exception of Rhode Island Gov. Don Carcieri (R), whose once-strong approval ratings have slumped recently, most score approval ratings between 55 percent and 70 percent in independent polls.
From interviews with more than two dozen political observers in these governors’ home states, three themes emerge from their success stories.
Make friends with the other party. Many — though not all – of these unlikely governors seem to get along better with legislators of the opposite party than with those of their own. That is usually wise, because the other party often controls the legislature.
 |  Louis Jacobson is the editor of CongressNow, an online publication launched in 2007 that covers legislation and policy in Congress and is affiliated with Roll Call newspaper in Washington, D.C. Jacobson originated the “Out There” column in 2004 as a feature for Roll Call, where he served as deputy editor. Earlier, Jacobson spent 11 years with National Journal covering lobbying, politics and policy, and served as a contributing writer for two of its affiliates, CongressDaily and Government Executive. He also was a contributing writer to The Almanac of American Politics and has done political handicapping of state legislatures for both The Rothenberg Political Report and The Cook Political Report. |
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California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R), for instance, “is so estranged from his own party that he can't deliver GOP votes for his own program,” such as his environmental initiatives, said California Democratic operative Garry South. “That leaves him dependent on Democrats to provide all the votes, and it gives them all the leverage to define the final product, which further alienates Republicans.”
Oklahoma Gov. Brad Henry (D) has embraced Republican lawmakers, said Robin Maxey, a Democratic state Senate leadership spokesman. “Sometimes that has angered the Democrats,” he said. “He has had constant battles with them, but because their priorities are so much the same, they have backed him more times than not.”
In New Mexico, Gov. Bill Richardson (D) has passed a Republican-style tax-rate cut for top earners that only a Democrat could have managed to push through the Democratic Legislature. Richardson also has a more pro-gun record than most national Democrats.
In Tennessee, Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) relates well to business interests. He pushed through workers' compensation reform that was vigorously opposed by labor and trial lawyers, two key Democratic constituencies, said political newsletter editor Ed Cromer. And he is perhaps best-known for cutting the state's health-care plan, TennCare. Republicans applauded that, said University of Tennessee political scientist Anthony Nownes.
Democratic activists in Wyoming privately express ambivalence about Democratic Gov. Dave Freudenthal, relieved to have one of their own as governor but unhappy to see how closely he’s worked with the GOP-led Legislature and how little he’s done, in their view, to help elect fellow Wyoming Democrats.
Put your nose to the grindstone and avoid hot-button issues. Governors in hostile territory are more likely to thrive if they stick to bread-and-butter issues and the political middle ground.
In North Carolina, Gov. Mike Easley (D) has generously funded higher education, established a kindergarten program for at-risk kids and created a program in which young people can earn a high school diploma and an associate college degree in five years.
Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano (D) “continues to be aggressive and disciplined on focusing on key issues such as immigration and growth, while also avoiding media distractions,” said GOP lobbyist Stuart Goodman.
And Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D) is focusing on school finance, health care and the environment at a time when the Kansas Republican Party has been fracturing over such issues as abortion and the teaching of evolution.
Burdett Loomis, a University of Kansas political scientist who spent a 2005 sabbatical working for Sebelius, said the governor “really focuses on how government works. She's moved firmly into the center of state politics and has somewhat isolated the right-wing Republicans.”
Emphasize your personality. Richardson’s happy-go-lucky exuberance makes him a favorite in New Mexico, while Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer’s take-charge attitude has won over Montana voters in both parties (though his win-at-all-costs approach has annoyed both Democratic and Republican legislators, several sources in the state said).
For Napolitano, personal approval ratings often exceed the level of support for her policies, said Bob Grossfeld, a Phoenix-based Democratic consultant. “Her strength is really less about issues and more about her own character,” he said.
Some succeed with a soft sell. In Connecticut, Gov. M Jodi Rell (R) “does it in sort of the same way President Reagan did it: People just like her,” said Democratic consultant Roy Occhiogrosso. “She’s a nice person, and the figure she cuts is such a stark contrast” to her predecessor, Gov. John Rowland (R), who went to jail for corruption.
In West Virginia, even Republicans consider Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin III to have unusually impressive people skills. These were on display in the wake of the Sago mine disaster, when he “really connected” with the families of the missing miners, said Associated Press reporter Larry Messina. “They felt he was on their side.”
Similarly, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R), despite barely surviving his 2006 re-election, earned praise in the aftermath of the deadly bridge collapse in Minneapolis. “He was immediately on the scene directing the response,” said Carleton College political scientist Steven Schier. In post-collapse polls, Pawlenty approaches 60 percent approval.
Strong ethics can be crucial. This certainly describes Rell, as well as Easley and Bredesen, whose reputations have remained clean even as prominent legislators have suffered ethics woes. Given the disarray in the Legislature, Easley has been “left with the clearest agenda of anyone in the state,” said Ferrel Guillory of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
Despite their success, many of these governors find it lonely at the top. Often, they were – and are – the only members of their party who could plausibly win their state’s governorship.
In Hawaii, Gov. Linda Lingle (R) is “pretty much on her own. The Republican Party here is weak and ineffective,” said University of Hawaii-Hilo political scientist Richard Castberg. In Connecticut, “there’s nothing behind Rell – literally,” Occhiogrosso said.
The most fortunate governors manage to change the reality around them. Sebelius helped recruit several disaffected Republicans to the Democratic camp, including former GOP State Chairman Mark Parkinson, who is now her lieutenant governor, and Paul Morrison, who switched parties to run as a Democrat in 2006 and ousted a conservative Republican attorney general.
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