Purple states: The playing field expands

Until now, Out There has hesitated to re-label solidly Republican states “purple” — that is, those states that are neither safely Republican (“red”) nor Democratic (“blue”) — simply based on the Obama campaign’s bravado

But after consulting with in-state political observers and the imperfect polling data that is available, Out There is making its biggest expansion of purple states so far in this fourth assessment of state political leanings since mid-2007. The new members of the purple club, accounting for 23 electoral votes, are Indiana, Montana, North Dakota, Alaska and South Dakota.

This expansion aside, an even bigger influence on the presidential race is likely to be changes in the ranking that concern pure tossup states.

As with Out There’s previous assessments, purple states are ranked Likely Democratic, Lean Democratic, Toss-Up, Lean Republican and Likely Republican. Out There currently posits that Obama can claim 241 electoral votes as either safe or leaning in his direction, while Republican John McCain can claim 200 electoral votes for himself.
 

Louis Jacobson is the editor of CongressNow, an online publication launched in 2007 that covers legislation and policy in Congress and is affiliated with Roll Call newspaper in Washington, D.C. Jacobson originated the “Out There” column in 2004 as a feature for Roll Call, where he served as deputy editor. Earlier, Jacobson spent 11 years with National Journal covering lobbying, politics and policy, and served as a contributing writer for two of its affiliates, CongressDaily and Government Executive. He also was a contributing writer to The Almanac of American Politics and has done political handicapping of state legislatures for both The Rothenberg Political Report and The Cook Political Report.

But despite this lead, Obama — as national polling suggests — has hardly clinched a victory. Reaching the magical 270 to win the White House will depend on which candidate wins toss-up states that currently account for a combined 96 electoral votes. In addition to five states cited as toss-ups in the June 27 assessment — Colorado, Michigan, New Mexico, Ohio and Virginia — Out There has shifted Florida and Nevada from Lean Republican to Toss-Up this time, while nudging Missouri in the other direction, from Toss-Up to Lean Republican.

All three of these switches were close calls, and these states could ping-pong between categories as Election Day nears (as could New Hampshire, currently a Lean Democratic state).

In Missouri, a classic presidential bellwether state for more than a century, Obama has sprinkled rural areas with field offices in an effort to expand on the handful of (admittedly populous) counties he won during his primary victory earlier this year. But rural, white, working-class voters have not been Obama’s strong suit, and a number of recent polls have McCain ahead in the state.

Obama’s fortunes look brighter in Florida and Nevada, where the electorate has more demographic churn, a factor that could reverse these states’ recent preference for Republican presidential candidates.

Meanwhile, in Nevada, recent polls have shown the race to be tight, but Democrats are increasingly buoyed by Democratic registration gains.

Out There currently classifies 25 states as purple, although some of these states are more competitive than others. Because the five newcomers to the purple list are only shifting from the Safe Republican category to Likely Republican, they do not change the electoral vote balance just yet. Still, it is now conceivable that these states could vote for Obama this fall.

While frustration with President Bush is real even in these Republican bastions, the new competitiveness stems in large part from the Obama campaign’s success in raising money. This has enabled the campaign to open offices and run advertising in a wider variety of states than anyone had expected just six months ago. And as a result, these states have moved away from Safe Republican status.

In Montana and North Dakota especially — where Obama has gone out of his way to visit — sources report continued excitement among rank-and-file Democrats, mixed with a lack of enthusiasm among Republicans for McCain. Automated polls show the race close in these states, with Obama sometimes ahead.

 “The Obama team has pledged to hire 50 field organizers in the state,” North Dakota state Sen. Tracy Potter (D) said. “In my 40 years in politics here, I don't think there have ever been more than 20, maybe never more than a dozen, paid staff working for the whole combined Democratic Party and its slate of candidates.”

South Dakota remains a longer shot for Obama, in part because it, unlike Montana and North Dakota, was not included in Obama’s early round of ad buys. But it is geographically and demographically similar to its neighbors, and scattered polls have showed McCain ahead only modestly.

Meanwhile, Obama has also put staff on the ground and aired advertising in Alaska. A recent poll there by a Democratic firm had Obama up by five points, though independent polls show McCain ahead. Obama has an opening in Alaska, not just because of the GOP corruption scandal that recently ensnared U.S. Sen. Ted Stevens (R), but also because McCain, despite his pro-drilling rhetoric message this summer, has long been opposed to drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Reserve — a stance at odds with many Alaskans

The other new purple state, Indiana, is the only one outside the West. Obama has established almost two dozen offices in the state and put television ads into heavy rotation.

Democrats predict a strong counterattack by the GOP and its allies, such as those in the gun movement, as the fall contest nears its climax. “I expect that ultimately, those voters indifferent to McCain are going to hold their nose and vote for him,” said Chuck Denowh, a former Montana Republican Party executive director.

Still, the good news for Obama is that he may not need to win a single one of these new purple states. If Obama can hold to all the states that are currently leaning in his direction, he could claim the presidency simply by winning the three Toss-Up states closest to his grasp: Michigan, New Mexico and Colorado. And if he did that, he could afford to lose Ohio and Florida and still become president.

See Related Stories:
State by state, it's still a tight race (6/27/2008)
Purple' states turn a little more 'blue' (3/6/2008)
2008 may come down to Ohio — again (7/19/2007)