| Gubernatorial races |
Vulnerable
· Wyoming (D)
· Kansas (D)
· Oklahoma (D)
· Michigan (D)
· Tennessee (D)
· Illinois (D)
· Virginia (D)
· Pennsylvania (D)
· New Jersey (D) | · Hawaii (R)
· Rhode Island (R)
· California (R)
· Nevada (R)
· South Dakota (R)
· Arizona (R) | |
Worth watching
· Iowa (D)
· Wisconsin (D)
· Ohio (D)
· New Mexico (D)
· Colorado (D)
· Maine (D)
· New York (D)
· Maryland (D) | · Connecticut (R)
· Minnesota (R)
· Alabama (R)
· Florida (R)
· Georgia (R)
· Vermont (R)
| |
Safe
· Massachusetts (D)
· Oregon (D)
· New Hampshire (D)
· Arkansas (D) | · South Carolina (R)
· Texas (R)
· Alaska (R)
· Idaho (R)
· Nebraska (R)
| | | | |
After winning the White House, taking control of Congress and securing majorities of the governorships and the state legislatures over the past two years, the Democrats are on a roll. But will their luck run out in the 2010 gubernatorial elections? Two governorships will be up in 2009, followed by the mother lode of 36 in 2010. And on the macro level, the Democrats have reason for concern.
For starters, the party has complete control of the federal government, at a time of economic challenges more severe than any in decades. Democrats will be seen as responsible for whatever happens between now and Election Day 2010. Worse-than-expected economic distress could lead voters to punish Democrats up and down the ballot, regardless of whether an individual governor “deserves” it.
Moreover, state-specific budget problems will weigh heavily on incumbents in both parties — and since there are more Democratic-held governorships at stake in 2009 and 2010 (21 Democratic seats to the Republicans’ 17) that reality disproportionately hurts the Democrats.
Indeed, the last time a major gubernatorial election year came in the midst of a state budgetary crisis – in 2002 – Republicans and Democrats lost control of governorships in droves, even in places where the “out” party had historically been weak.
With Arizona Secretary of State Jan Brewer (R) taking over for Gov. Janet Napolitano (D), who was recently installed as secretary of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, the Democrats control 28 governorships to 22 for the GOP. So, barring any other mid-term party changes, the Republicans will need to flip only a net of four governorships to put them in the lead.
That’s where the micro outlook comes in — and that, too, looks favorable to the GOP.
Because of term limits, Democrats will be defending at least 10 open seats over the two-year period, compared to just seven open seats for the GOP. Even Democratic strategists acknowledge that’s a serious discrepancy that will inevitably influence the results.
| | Select a state from the dropdown menu to read more.
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As it happens, many of the two-term governors now exiting the scene won their seats in that upheaval year of 2002, in places normally hostile to their party. That means that in 2010, the “out” party will be hungry to win back seats they consider rightfully theirs — and they’ll be well placed to do it. While Democrats are eager to pick up seats in Democratic-leaning states such as California, Hawaii and Rhode Island, the Republicans have a few more opportunities of that sort, including the governorships of GOP-leaning Kansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Wyoming. Specifically, “Out There” currently ranks nine Democratic-held governorships as vulnerable to a GOP flip, which is more than the six vulnerable seats for the Republicans. (A complete list in chart form accompanies this column.)
The vulnerable seats are a mixed bag. In addition to the four Democratic seats opening up in solidly Republican territory (Kansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Wyoming), the Democrats will be playing defense in:
- Illinois, where the impeachment of Gov. Rod Blagojevich has severely tarnished his party’s image;
- Michigan, which has been hammered by the poor manufacturing economy;
- Pennsylvania, where a longstanding pattern of trading gubernatorial control points in the Republicans’ direction in 2010;
- New Jersey, where the GOP has found a strong challenger to incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine; and
- Virginia, where the party must get through a potentially bruising primary before taking on a unified GOP.
By contrast, the Republicans have serious concerns only about Arizona, the three open seats in solidly Democratic territory (California, Hawaii and Rhode Island) plus Nevada, where first-term Gov. Jim Gibbons has gotten himself into a series of self-inflicted scrapes, and South Dakota, where a strong Democratic candidate, U.S. Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, is planning an open-seat bid.
 |  Louis Jacobson is the editor of CongressNow, an online publication launched in 2007 that covers legislation and policy in Congress and is affiliated with Roll Call newspaper in Washington, D.C. Jacobson originated the “Out There” column in 2004 as a feature for Roll Call, where he served as deputy editor. Earlier, Jacobson spent 11 years with National Journal covering lobbying, politics and policy, and served as a contributing writer for two of its affiliates, CongressDaily and Government Executive. He also was a contributing writer to The Almanac of American Politics and has done political handicapping of state legislatures for both The Rothenberg Political Report and The Cook Political Report. | | |
Meanwhile, the Democrats have eight governorships pegged by “Out There” as “worth watching,” which refers to contests that are not the biggest targets for the opposition party, but which could develop into hot races under the right conditions.
The eight Democratic-held governorships considered “worth watching,” according to “Out There,” are Iowa, Ohio, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Maine, Colorado, New York and Maryland. The Republicans have just six seats in the same category: Connecticut, Minnesota, Alabama, Georgia, Florida and Vermont.
It’s also worth mentioning that the GOP, shut out of power in Washington, desperately needs to boost its chances by touting its governors. Such incumbent Republican governors as Florida’s Charlie Crist, Louisiana’s Bobby Jindal, Alaska’s Sarah Palin and Minnesota’s Tim Pawlenty are already national figures and should be able to attract attention to the GOP’s gubernatorial bench. Given the party’s woes in the nation’s capital, Republican donors and activists will likely be more energized than usual to fund a comeback led by the governors.
All told, it’s likely that the Republicans will gain several seats over the two-year cycle, and it’s not impossible they will be able to seize the majority of gubernatorial seats by Election Day 2010.
Click here to see an archive of columns by “Out There” columnist Louis Jacobson.
This is the last regular column of “Out There” by political journalist Louis Jacobson to be published by Stateline.org.
Alabama Popular Gov. Bob Riley (R) is term-limited, and while Democrats inevitably face an uphill climb in statewide races in the Deep South, they should be able to make a credible showing here in 2010. The Democrats have three potential candidates with a shot at winning: Lt. Gov. Jim Folsom, a former governor as well as son of a 1950s-era governor; U.S. Rep. Artur Davis, a moderate who has won crossover support among white voters and whose candidacy would be historic; and Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks.
The potential GOP field includes a broad range of candidates, none of whom has secured the frontrunner label yet: Tim James, a businessman and son of former Gov. Fob James; U.S. Rep. Jo Bonner; former state Sen. Bradley Byrne, the chancellor of the two-year college system; Secretary of State Beth Chapman; Troy University chancellor Jack Hawkins; state House Minority Leader Mike Hubbard; state Treasurer Kay Ivey; Attorney General Troy King; and Luther Strange, the unsuccessful 2006 nominee for lieutenant governor. The contest is wide open.
Alaska A few months on the vice presidential campaign trail raised the national profile of Gov. Sarah Palin (R) – as well as her negatives, even at home, where her ratings dropped from stratospherically popular to merely very popular. Her quest for a second term is aided by the lack of a strong Democratic challenger. Former House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz has now lost statewide races in consecutive cycles, while state Sen. Hollis French alienated Republicans he’d need to win over during his high profile role investigating the “Troopergate” scandal involving Palin. Consider her a strong favorite for a second term.
Arizona In Arizona’s unusual rules of gubernatorial succession, Secretary of State Jan Brewer (R) took over for Gov. Janet Napolitano (D) when the latter was confirmed as Secretary of Homeland Security. Brewer had already been pegged as the leading Republican for 2010, and now she’s able to run as the incumbent. If she does run, her fate depends on how she and the Republican legislature handle the budget crisis amid the sagging economy.
If Brewer doesn’t run, the GOP has a deep bench in the state, including former state Senate President Ken Bennett (who was tapped by Brewer to become Secretary), Glendale Mayor Elaine Scruggs, Corporation Commissioner Bill Mundell, former U.S. Rep. Matt Salmon, Mesa Mayor Scott Smith and state House Speaker Kirk Adams. Whatever Brewer decides, the Democrats have two strong potential candidates: Attorney General Terry Goddard, the son of an
Arizona governor, or Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon. The race should be highly competitive.
Arkansas Gov. Mike Beebe (D), one of the nation’s most popular governors, should breeze to a second term. Because the GOP has to field a gubernatorial candidate to remain certified as a political party in Arkansas, the state party may have to activate an obscure rule requiring the state chair to run if no one else does.
California Keeping California in Republican hands after Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger exits in 2010 was never going to be easy in such a strongly Democratic state, and the state’s massive fiscal problems won’t help the incumbent party. The possible Democratic contenders include some big names, including Attorney General and former Gov. Jerry Brown, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom — all liberals — and Lt. Gov. John Garamendi, who is more moderate. A dark horse in the Democratic field is state schools superintendent Jack O'Connell.
The top tier for the GOP consists of Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, a former Silicon Valley businessman who could help fund his own campaign, and Meg Whitman, who earned millions from building up eBay. Former U.S. Rep. Tom Campbell is also in the mix. But as moderates, these Republicans would face resistance from their party’s hard-line base and might not survive a primary. However it plays out, California will be one of the Democrats’ biggest gubernatorial targets in 2010.
Colorado First-term Gov. Bill Ritter (D) has won plaudits for his alternative energy policies but has drawn fire for allegedly pandering to state employee unions and for backing a failed ballot measure that would have raised taxes on the oil and gas industry With a difficult budget situation, Ritter is ripe for a serious challenge. The problem for Republicans is that in Democratic-trending Colorado, the GOP bench has withered to almost nothing. State Sen. Josh Penry has potential, but he’s not well known statewide. And if the party base pushes to nominate someone like former Rep. Tom Tancredo, a fierce opponent of immigration, the Republicans are likely to cede the governorship to Ritter for another four years.
Connecticut The fate of Connecticut’s governorship depends squarely on whether Gov. Jodi Rell (R) runs again. The low-key, politically moderate Rell, successor to scandal-convicted GOP Gov. John Rowland, has maintained broad support even as Connecticut voters have intensified their Democratic lean in recent years.
If Rell runs, she’ll have a good shot at winning, though no New England Republican can ever be sure of that these days — and a worse-than-expected economy would be a serious hindrance. Without Rell, Republicans would still have credible, generally moderate candidates to rely on, including ex-U.S. Rep. Rob Simmons, state Senate Minority Leader John McKinney and Lt. Gov. Mike Fedele. Recently defeated U.S. Rep. Christopher Shays (R) could also be a strong candidate. If Rell calls it quits, the Democrats would likely be favored.
The potential Democratic field is deep, though some would be reluctant to challenge Rell if she runs again. The Democratic bigfoot would be state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, though he’s backed away from a number of bids for higher office in the past. If Blumenthal doesn’t run, Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy would be a strong contender; he impressed many in his losing 2006 gubernatorial primary bid. In the next tier would be Secretary of State Susan Bysewicz and state Comptroller Nancy Wyman.
Florida A moderate seemingly in tune with his moderate state, Gov. Charlie Crist (R) has remained popular during his first term and looks tough to beat. But a wild card is the vacancy of a U.S. Senate seat occupied by Republican Mel Martinez. The open seat is drawing interest within both parties, and national Republicans are trying to recruit Crist to run for it. Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, arguably the top Democrat for either position, has decided to run again for her current seat.
That leaves a pool of Democrats mulling a run for one seat or the other: Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer; Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio; U.S. Rep. Allen Boyd, a moderate from the northern part of the state who’s ruled out the Senate; and U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek.
If Crist stays as governor, most of these candidates would probably prefer a Senate run, unless Crist’s popularity craters due to the economy or for some other reason. That’s because while Crist has some problems on his right flank — and while Democrats are emboldened by their strong 2008 showing in the Sunshine State — he is not seen as especially vulnerable for a second term. If Crist jumps into the Senate race, however, all bets are off.
Georgia Republicans should be able to hold the Georgia governorship after Sonny Perdue leaves office, though not without a fight from Democrats. The early GOP frontrunner is Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle, though the field could also include Secretary of State Karen Handel, Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine, state House Speaker Glen Richardson, U.S. Reps. Jack Kingston and Lynn Westmoreland and state Rep. Jerry Keen, a former state Christian Coalition chief. U.S. Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) would be formidable, meanwhile, if he backed off his decision not to run.
The Democrats, who have been on the decline in
Georgia for several years, could look to Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond or Attorney General Thurbert Baker or to DuBose Porter, the House Minority Leader, or David Poythress, a former Adjutant General, Secretary of State and Labor Commissioner. But generically, any Democrat would start at a disadvantage.
Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle (R) remains popular in this strongly Democratic state, but is term-limited. Holding it will be a tough challenge for the GOP. Lt. Gov. James (Duke) Aiona is the expected Republican nominee; he’s considered less popular and more conservative than Lingle, and thus would be a tougher sell to the Democratic voters he needs to win. The Democratic field may include state Senate president Colleen Hanabusa, Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann, former U.S. Rep. Ed Case and U.S. Rep. Neil Abercrombie. Abercrombie would be the field-clearer if he enters the race.
Idaho Gov. Butch Otter (R) has had a rocky first term, including flak from his fellow Republicans, but it’s hard to imagine a Democrat ousting him. So for now, at least, Otter seems to be free of primary competition. In the event he doesn’t seek a second term, the GOP has a deep bench in the state and should be able to hold it. A top Democratic contender, longtime state Senate Minority Leader Clint Stennett, is under treatment for cancer. Other possible Democrats include Boise mayor David Bieter and possibly Pocatello mayor Roger Chase, but they may not want to pull the trigger on such a challenging race.
Illinois December’s dramatic arrest of Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) on corruption charges threw the 2010 gubernatorial contest into turmoil. The key questions are: How will his successor, former Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn, do in office? Will the stench from the scandal will be enough to turn Illinois, an increasingly Democratic-leaning state, towards the Republicans? And will the GOP will be able to offer a candidate whom voters can support? Democrats such as Attorney General Lisa Madigan and state Comptroller Dan Hynes could challenge Quinn in a primary. Another Democrat to keep an eye on is 32-year-old state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias. He and President Barack Obama played basketball, and the then-U.S. Senator backed Giannoulias’ insurgent campaign for Treasurer in 2006 —evidence of “change” that could benefit the tarnished state.
While the scandal provides Republicans with an opening, the hollowed-out state GOP has a limited pool to draw from, including Doug Whitley, the moderate head of the state Chamber of Commerce; House Minority Leader Tom Cross; conservative state Sen. Bill Brady; conservative DuPage County state's attorney and 2006 lieutenant governor candidate Joe Birkett; self-financing candidate Ron Gidwitz; and state Sen. Kirk Dillard, whose has appearance in pro-Obama advertisements would hurt him among primary voters. At this point, this one’s impossible to call.
Iowa The state of the economy — in Iowa as with everywhere else — remains a major question mark for 2010, and it’s the main thing keeping Gov. Chet Culver (D) somewhat vulnerable. Republican Bob Vander Plaats — who lost in the 2002 gubernatorial primary and then in 2006 as the general-election nominee for lieutenant governor — is running again.
Other possible Republicans include 2002 gubernatorial nominee Doug Gross; state Agriculture secretary Bill Northey; state auditor David Vaudt; businessman Bruce Rastetter; and Rod Roberts, a pastor and state representative. None has the same stature as Culver, though total Democratic control of the state and federal government and the current hard economic times could provide Republicans with an opening. Meanwhile, state Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal could challenge Culver in the Democratic primary, but that’s by no means a foregone conclusion.
Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D) has made the Kansas governorship safe for Democrats, but can the party hold on to it once she leaves due to term limits in 2010? It’s looking less likely than it did before the first of the year. Lt. Gov. Mark Parkinson, a former Republican state chairman who won his office as a Democratic running mate with Sebelius in 2006, recently decided against seeking the top slot in 2010. State Treasurer and former House Minority Leader Dennis McKinney – a farmer who lost his house in the devastating Greensburg, Kan., tornado and who could draw support from the party’s old-line, pro-labor wing – is considered likely to run. Another possibility is state Rep. Raj Goyle, who some say bears some similarities to a fellow Indian-American political rising star, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal (R).
But even though the Kansas GOP has been driven by conservative-vs.-moderate factionalism in recent years, both of these Democrats would be underdogs against U.S. Sen. Sam Brownback, a likely gubernatorial contender. Brownback’s staunch social conservatism gives Democrats hope of reassembling the Democrats-and-moderate-Republicans coalition that elected Sebelius, but the Senator has won statewide with ease. First he might have to dispatch Secretary of State Ron Thornburgh in a primary. Thornburgh may be able to peel off the support of some moderate Republicans.
Maine Gov. John Baldacci (D) is term-limited, leaving a wide-open race – especially given the state’s public financing law, which can give lesser-known candidates a shot of winning. The state leans Democratic, but it’s unpredictable enough to offer Republicans and even Independents hope of winning in 2010.
Steven Rowe, the outgoing state Attorney General, is the early frontrunner on the Democratic side. Other potential Democrats include the state’s commissioner of conservation, Patrick McGowan; the former public utilities commission chairman, Kurt Adams; former state House Speakers John Richardson and Glenn Cummings; Laura Fortman, the state labor commissioner; state Sen. Bill Diamond, a former Secretary of State; former state Senate President Beth Edmonds; or Adam Cote, a former Republican, Iraq War veteran and attorney who last year finished a surprising second in the Democratic primary for an open U.S. House seat. U.S. Rep. Michael Michaud (D) would be a field-clearer if he were to jump into the race.
On the Republican side, moderate state Sen. Peter Mills would be a strong general election candidate, but he would likely have trouble winning his party’s nomination. Other possible Republicans include state House Minority Leader Josh Tardy; former state Senate President Rick Bennett; business executives Matt Jacobson, Kevin Hancock, Les Otten and Peter Vigue; Steve Abbott, a longtime aide to U.S. Sen. Susan Collins; Waterville Mayor Paul LePage; and possibly Augusta Mayor Roger Katz. In a multi-way race, a third-party candidate such as former Gov. Angus King (I) could win with a vote share in the low 30s.
Maryland The reelection prospects of Gov. Martin O’Malley (D) look brighter today than just a few months ago. The state, like many others, is going through a painful budget crunch, and tax increases hurt his approval rating with voters. But on election day, a pro-slot machine ballot measure he backed over vocal opposition carried the day. Moreover, the Free State’s strong Democratic lean makes it unlikely ground for a Republican takeover. And on Jan. 30, one of only two GOP figures with gubernatorial stature – former Lt. Gov. Michael Steele – became the national Republican Party chairman, presumably taking him out of the running. That leaves former Gov. Robert Ehrlich (R), but even he would be an underdog if he chose to run.
Massachusetts First-term Gov. Deval Patrick (D) has had a rocky first term, beset by budget challenges. But he’s improved in recent months, with independent polls showing approval ratings in the 60s, and Republicans – despite holding the governor’s mansion from 1991 to 2007 – will be hard-pressed to find a strong challenger this cycle. Their best option could be health care executive Charlie Baker, but it’s not clear whether he’ll run in 2010. Democrat Tim Cahill, the commonwealth’s Treasurer, has toyed with making a primary run against Patrick, but that’s looking less likely now than it did a few months ago.
Michigan Few if any states have been battered more harshly by the economy than Michigan, and while it’s hard to blame outgoing Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D) personally, a deep-seated urge for change won’t be helpful to her party. Lt. Gov. John Cherry is the likely Democratic nominee, while state Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith and former state Rep. John Freeman are other Democrats considering the race.
A number of Republicans are considered potential contenders: Attorney General Mike Cox; Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land; U.S. Reps. Peter Hoekstra, Candice Miller and Mike Rogers; former U.S. Rep. Joe Schwarz; Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop; Oakland County sheriff Mike Bouchard; Dominos Pizza CEO Dave Brandon; state Sen. Tom George; and Tim McBride, a Michigan native who was an aide to former President George H.W. Bush. One name gaining steam is Oakland County Executive Brooks Patterson, who would vault into the top tier if he runs.
The question is whether Republicans can overcome Michigan’s recent pro-Democratic lean, which was crystallized by 2008 GOP presidential nominee John McCain’s big loss in the state. The killing of an auto bailout plan by U.S. Senate Republicans surely won’t help the party’s image.
Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) would clear the GOP field if he runs for a third term. If not, any number of Republicans could contend for the nomination, including possibly ousted U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman, businessman Brian Sullivan, state House Assistant Minority Leader Laura Brod and U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann.
A range of strong Democrats are lining up in the hope of becoming the first from their party to win the governorship since 1986. The potential field includes former U.S. Sen. Mark Dayton, Ramsey County Attorney Susan Gaertner, state Rep. Paul Thissen, state Sen. Tom Bakk, House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, Senate Assistant Majority Leader Tarryl Clark, St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman, Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak and former state Rep. Matt Entenza.
Nebraska Gov. Dave Heineman (R) is safe for a second full term. The Democratic bench includes state Sens. Tom White and Steve Lathrop, who both serve in Nebraska's nonpartisan unicameral legislature, and Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey, but none is likely to run when faced with such a limited chance of winning.
Nevada The first term of Gov. Jim Gibbons (R) started badly and only got worse, from allegations (that he denied) of touching a woman inappropriately in the waning days of the 2006 campaign to a nasty divorce that included revelations that he’d used a state phone to send almost 1,000 text messages to a woman not his wife. And that’s not even counting the state’s big fiscal squeeze.
Republicans who could face Gibbons in a primary — or run to succeed him — include North Las Vegas Mayor Mike Montandon, Reno Mayor Bob Cashell, U.S. Rep. Dean Heller, former Rep. Jon Porter, state Sen. Joe Heck and Assembly Republican Leader Heidi Gansert. Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki once seemed to be a rising star, but in December, he was indicted on charges related to his previous tenure as state treasurer. He could be cleared of the charges in time to make a strong run.
The potential Democratic field has at least two big names: Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman and Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid. Goodman’s name identification is through the roof, but his years as a lawyer defending alleged mafia figures may not play well in some parts of the state. Reid is the son of U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) and has been groomed for a major role in state politics. The decision by former President Bill Clinton to help raise funds for Rory Reid may give him a leg up.
New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch (D) cruised to reelection in 2008. Unless Republicans can find a strong candidate in his Democratic-trending state, he should win another term in 2010.
New Jersey (2009 election) An enormous budget gap has saddled first-term Gov. Jon Corzine (D) with unpopularity among voters, and given how dependent New Jersey is on the reeling financial-services sector, an economic recovery is not expected anytime soon. Former Glen Ridge Mayor Carl Bergmanson (D) has announced a primary bid, but he’s not expected to offer a stiff challenge to the deep-pocketed incumbent.
Republicans have a strong contender in corruption-busting U.S. Attorney Chris Christie. A January Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll found Corzine up against Christie only 38 percent to 36 percent. Other possible GOP contenders are Morris County state Assemblyman Rick Merkt, former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan and Franklin Mayor Brian Levine.
New Mexico New Mexico Democrats have been on a roll in recent years, but a flurry of investigations could be a drag for the party in 2010. Most notably, Gov. Bill Richardson (D) took himself out of the running for U.S. Commerce Secretary on Jan. 4 amid a grand-jury probe of “pay-to-play” allegations. As long as Richardson stays in the governor’s mansion, Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D) won’t be the incumbent heading into 2010, though she’ll still be the frontrunner.
The name of actor Val Kilmer has been bandied about, though that now seems less likely now that he was spotted working with the (short-lived) Denish transition team. Other possible Democratic challengers are Gary King, the state attorney general, and state Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez.
Three moderate Republicans to watch are former U.S. Rep. Heather Wilson, who ran unsuccessfully for U.S. Senate in 2008; Sue Wilson Beffort, who unsuccessfully ran for lieutenant governor; and former Gov. Garrey Carruthers, business school dean at New Mexico State University. Also mentioned are former U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce and Army Gen. Greg Zanetti. A wild card is Albuquerque Mayor Marty Chavez, a Democrat who’s arguably more popular with Republicans than with those in his own party.
New York Like many governors facing budget and economic troubles, Gov. David Paterson (D) has hit a rough patch after taking over for scandal-tarred Gov. Eliot Spitzer (D). Paterson also was criticized for his handling of the appointment of the U.S. Senate seat held by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. He could face a primary against someone like state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, but if Paterson is the nominee, it’s unclear that the GOP has enough of a bench to beat him. U.S. Rep. Peter King (R) is arguably the strongest.
Ohio The state’s economic troubles have dampened his approval numbers a bit, but first-term Gov. Ted Strickland (D) remains generally popular. In January, he got a break when U.S. Rep. Rob Portman decided to run for a U.S. Senate seat that just opened up due to Republican George Voinovich’s retirement. Former U.S. Rep. John Kasich (R) and former U.S. Sen. Mike DeWine (R) could run for governor. But the national GOP did its Ohio candidates no favors by killing the auto bailout in the Senate.
Oklahoma Term-limited Gov. Brad Henry (D) has had a successful run, but his open seat provides the GOP with one of its top pickup opportunities for 2010. The GOP field is likely to be big, possibly including a mix of U.S. Reps. Tom Cole and Mary Fallin, former U.S. Rep. J.C. Watts, U.S. Sen. Tom Coburn, former House Speaker Todd Hiett, Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett, state Sen. Randy Brogdon, trial lawyer and former Independent Gary Richardson and state Senate President Glenn Coffee, who’s also discussed as a possible attorney general candidate.
The Democratic field is actually stronger than one might expect in such a Republican-leaning state. It could include Lt. Gov. Jari Askins, state Treasurer Scott Meacham, Attorney General Drew Edmondson, Tulsa Mayor Kathy Taylor, and Secretary of State and former Tulsa Mayor Susan Savage. One of these Democrats could make it a competitive race, but with not a single county in Oklahoma voting for Barack Obama in the 2008 presidential race, the GOP can feel comfortable about getting a good head start on 2010.
Oregon While Gov. Ted Kulongoski (D) cannot serve a third consecutive term, the Democratic Party is dominating the GOP in Oregon, with even respected Republican moderates such as U.S. Sen. Gordon Smith losing their seats in 2008. The potential Democratic field is far from settled. It includes former two-term Gov. John Kitzhaber, who would likely be the favorite if he ran. Others would be Senate President Peter Courtney; Ben Westlund, a former Republican and Independent who was elected state Treasurer in 2008; outgoing Secretary of State Bill Bradbury; state Senator Mark Haas; and, less likely, U.S. Reps. Peter DeFazio and Earl Blumenauer.
Republicans, who haven’t elected an
Oregon governor since 1982, have a thinner bench, though Smith could be an attractive contender if he decided to run. Other Republicans include state Sen. Jason Atkinson, businessman Allen Alley and, less likely, U.S. Rep. Greg Walden. After a year in which Oregon Republicans struggled simply to field candidates for key state offices, Democrats start this contest as the favorite.
Pennsylvania While the Keystone State has been trending Democratic in recent years, a quirk of political history promises to make the 2010 gubernatorial race competitive. Since World War II, the parties have switched control of the governorship every eight years like clockwork, and in 2010 it will be the Republicans’ turn. So even though term-limited Gov. Ed Rendell (D) is popular, most politicos in the state give the Republicans even odds, or better, of winning the next gubernatorial election.
The leading GOP contender is state Attorney General Tom Corbett, a moderate who won a strong reelection victory in 2008 on the strength of his efforts to root out corruption in the state Legislature. (He’s the only statewide elected Republican in Pennsylvania other than U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter.) Other possible Republican contenders include moderate U.S. Rep. Jim Gerlach; former U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan, Montgomery County Commissioner Bruce Castor; and staunchly conservative former U.S. Rep. Pat Toomey.
The Democratic frontrunner is Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato. A moderate, Onorato isn’t well known outside of metropolitan
Pittsburgh and he is associated with a per-drink tax that could turn off some voters. Other possible candidates include Auditor General Jack Wagner, a Marine combat veteran and a political moderate; businessman and unsuccessful Philadelphia mayoral candidate Tom Knox; businessman and former Revenue Secretary Tom Wolf; Montgomery County Commissioner and former U.S. Rep. Joe Hoeffel; Lehigh County Executive and former Bethlehem Mayor Don Cunningham; and state Senate Minority Leader Robert Mellow.
Rhode Island Gov. Don Carcieri (R) has seen his popularity nosedive in his second term, and with the economy even worse in the Ocean State than elsewhere, Republicans have a slim chance of holding the seat. The potential GOP field includes conservative Steve Laffey, who mounted an unsuccessful Senate primary bid in 2006; state Rep. Joe Trillo; and moderate Warwick Mayor Scott Avedisian, who’s also been discussed for other offices.
More likely, the governorship will go to one of the bevy of Democrats in this solidly Democratic state — or to popular former
U.S. Sen. Lincoln Chafee, a Republican-turned-Independent. The Democrats include state Treasurer Frank Caprio, Attorney General Patrick Lynch, Lt. Gov. Elizabeth Roberts, Providence Mayor David Cicilline, former Lt. Gov. Charlie Fogarty and, less likely, U.S. Rep. James Langevin.
South Carolina The large field of potential Republican candidates to succeed term-limited Gov. Mark Sanford (R) includes U.S. Rep. Gresham Barrett, Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, state Attorney General Henry McMaster, state House Majority Leader Jim Merrill, and, less likely, former state House Speaker David Wilkins or possibly his brother Billy, a retired appeals court chief judge. Also worth keeping tabs on are two scions of major political families in the state: Carroll Campbell, whose father served as governor, and Strom Thurmond Jr., whose father was governor and then for decades a U.S. Senator. Thurmond, particularly, has received favorable reviews for his work as a federal and state prosecutor.
The Democratic field could include former state House Minority Leader James Smith, a veteran of the war in Afghanistan; former state Democratic chairman Joe Erwin; state Sens. Vincent Shaheen and Joel Lurie; state Sen. Robert Ford; state Rep. Brad Hutto; state Superintendent of Education Jim Rex and former education chief and unsuccessful U.S. Senate candidate Inez Tenenbaum.
Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama did surprisingly well among younger
South Carolina voters in 2008, and the Democratic gubernatorial field is surprisingly strong. But the state remains one of the most conservative in the country, and it won’t be easy for them to flip the seat
South Dakota The race to succeed two-term Gov. Mike Rounds (R) looks to be surprisingly competitive – as long as U.S. Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin runs for the Democrats. Herseth Sandlin, whose grandfather was a governor and whose father was a gubernatorial nominee, is energetic and well-liked. She’s also served the whole state already as it at-large House Member. She’d be at least even money, and quite possibly favored, to become the first Democratic governor to serve in South Dakota since the 1970s.
The list of Republican hopefuls is long, with Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard the nominal favorite. With former state Sen. Lee Schoenbeck, a champion of staunch conservatives, and former state Rep. Matt Michaels saying they’re out of the race, possible Republicans include moderate state Sen. Dave Knudson and Brookings Mayor Scott Munsterman. If Herseth Sandlin doesn’t run, the Democrats would turn to state Sen. Scott Heidepriem, a former Republican, but without her running, the state’s GOP lean would be a challenge.
Tennessee Democrats will face obstacles keeping the governorship after Phil Bredesen vacates the governor’s mansion in 2010. The party does have several potentially strong candidates, including former state House Majority Leader Kim McMillan and former U.S. Rep. Harold Ford Jr., an African American who exceeded expectations in his losing U.S. Senate bid in 2006. Also mentioned are former Nashville Mayor Bill Purcell and former Democratic state chairman Doug Horne.
The GOP list is strong as well, even after former U.S. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist took himself out of the running in early January. Other Republicans who may run are U.S. Reps. Marsha Blackburn and Zach Wamp, Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey, Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam and Shelby County District Attorney General Bill Gibbons. Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama fared poorly in Tennessee last fall, and if the state GOP can avoid miscues, it would be an early favorite to recapture the governorship.
Texas The gubernatorial race in Texas promises to be a doozy. Gov. Rick Perry (R), who has served for eight years following his elevation after George W. Bush departed for the White House, is likely to run for a third full term (unless he’s just bluffing to improve his hand with the legislature).
Whether or not Perry runs, he’ll have fierce competition from U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R). She’s widely popular in the state, though the conservatives who dominate the GOP base view her skeptically because she favors abortion rights. Other Republican possibilities include Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, conservative radio station owner and state Sen. Dan Patrick and former Secretary of State Roger Williams.
While some Texas voters have soured on Perry specifically and on the state Republican Party generally in the past few years, it’s not at all clear that the Democrats, with their decimated bench, can take advantage of the opening, especially since demographic salvation from increased numbers of Latino voters remains years away. The strongest Democrat potentially in the mix is Houston Mayor Bill White, if he were willing to give up his current job; another possibility is former comptroller John Sharp. Both are credible, but any of the top Republicans would start as the favorite.
Vermont Assuming Gov. Jim Douglas (R) runs for another two-year term, he’ll be favored. He prevailed in 2008 against a credible Democrat even as the state tilted heavily toward Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama, and at this point, there’s little reason to think he’ll have problems in 2010.
Virginia (2009 election) With its unique one-term-and-out rule for governors, Virginia offers a fresh start every four years. The Democrats have won the past two gubernatorial elections — Mark Warner in 2001 and Tim Kaine in 2005. But despite these two governors’ popularity, and despite big Democratic gains across the state in the 2008 election, the Democrats won’t get off without a stiff fight in 2009.
The Republicans have all but settled on a nominee – state Attorney General Bob McDonnell — while the Democrats can look ahead to a rough, three-way primary between veteran Democratic fundraiser Terry McAuliffe and two legislators, Sen. Creigh Deeds, who narrowly lost the 2005 AG race to McDonnell, and Del. Brian Moran, the brother of U.S. Rep. Jim Moran (D). McAuliffe is sure to get questions from the other two about why he deserves to be governor of a commonwealth where he’s had little political role before. On the upside, he might be able to collect so much money that he’s able to change any negative perceptions.
Wisconsin Gov. Jim Doyle (D) isn’t among the nation’s most popular governors, and the economy has blown a hole in the state budget. But Doyle is battle-tested and may have enough juice to win a third consecutive term. His fundraising prowess is probably enough to preclude any primary competition, though Republicans are buoyed by the likelihood that 2010 will be a more favorable environment for their party than either 2006 or 2008.
On the GOP side,
Milwaukee County executive Scott Walker starts as the frontrunner; he combines a base in normally Democratic Milwaukee with a strong anti-tax record that’s attractive to core Republicans. Former state GOP chairman Rick Graber could pick up the slack if
Walker falters. Other possible Republicans include former Rep. Mark Neumann, 2004 U.S. Senate nominee Tim Michels and, unlikeliest of the bunch, former Gov. Tommy Thompson. Still, if Doyle runs and Thompson doesn’t, the Democrats begin the race favored.
Wyoming Gov. Dave Freudenthal (D), one of the few Democrats able to win the governorship of solidly Republican Wyoming, is preparing to step down after two terms. The Republicans are likely to face a vigorous, multi-sided primary that could include state House Speaker Roy Cohee, U.S. Rep.-elect Cynthia Lummis, Secretary of State Max Maxfield, former U.S. Attorney Matt Mead, state Auditor Rita Meyer, and state Rep. Colin Simpson.
Simpson, the son of former U.S. Sen. Alan Simpson, could be a strong general election candidate, but he’s not as popular among conservatives and could have trouble winning the GOP primary. Either he or such Republicans as Lummis or Maxfield would be an early favorite over any Democrat, including former Wyoming Trial Lawyers Association president and ex-state Rep. Larry Clapp, 2008 U.S. Senate nominee Nick Carter or State Rep. Debbie Hammons. Democrats pin their hopes on Republicans being weakened by a divided primary, but it’s a fairly thin reed to rely on.
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